Chasing 3 an over… and why many retirements still stumble

The brief was simple: three an over and the game was won. Simple, right?

Then came the unnecessary shots. That’s how many retirements derail—by taking more risk than needed, right before the finish line.

Before Christmas at the Adelaide Test, on the final day I sat next to a jet‑setting English fan who’s retired and travelling the world watching sport.

England needed roughly three an over on the final day. All day to bat with enough wickets in the shed. No need to force it. Leave the good balls, rotate the strike, punish the bad ones.

For a while, they looked solid—then a few wickets fell to aggressive shots they didn’t need to play. T20 instincts and Bazball rearing it’s ugly head in a Test match.

As we know, England lost that test match…all because they took too much risk.

I see the same thing in retirement planning.

Inside seven years of retirement, the “required run rate” changes.

It’s no longer about how fast your balance grows; it’s about whether your portfolio can keep the scoreboard ticking—without losing wickets—when markets wobble and you start drawing an income from super and other investments.

The real danger isn’t volatility in general. It’s sequence risk: retiring into a downturn while taking withdrawals.

Two portfolios with the same average return can produce very different outcomes depending on when the bad years show up—just like two teams chasing the same total can have very different results depending on when wickets fall.

Knowledge gaps that quietly increase risk:

• Do you know your actual asset mix inside super (growth vs defensive), or just last year’s return? (Hint: you’re probably taking more risk than you think)
• Have you modelled what happens to your income if markets fall 20–30% in your first two years of retirement?
• Do you have a “leave the good balls” rule—settings that reduce the need to sell growth assets for income during a downturn?
• Are you still taking the same risk you took a decade ago simply because “it worked” or “it’s the default option” even though you’re nearing the finish line?

What I’m seeing 3–7 years from retirement:

• Staying in high‑growth options because they’ve performed well. It feels bold—until a drawdown forces you to delay retirement, creating avoidable stress and lost time for travel and experiences.
• Last‑minute “boosts” to the total—another investment property or a risky play—without understanding which retirement path you’re actually on. When it backfires, it damages the plan right before the finish line.
• Thin cash reserves, so withdrawals come from growth assets at the worst times—turning a temporary dip into a permanent loss.

A quick, real‑world example:

Recently, we reviewed a couple with multi‑millions across super and investments—more than enough to fund the lifestyle they wanted. But there was one glaring blind spot: roughly 95% in growth assets.

We asked: “If markets fell 30%, for every $1m you have, that’s a $300k drop. What would you do?”

Their immediate answer: “We’d cut back our spending.”

That’s not just market risk—that’s memory risk. Fewer trips, fewer experiences, and potentially years spent living smaller while waiting for a rebound. And time is the one thing you can’t buy back.

We modelled an alternative: reduce the growth exposure, build adequate cash and defensive reserves, and still hit their retirement income target. Same lifestyle outcomes, lower stress, higher resilience.

They chose to wind back risk so they could preserve capital and future‑proof their ability to maximise experiences and memories. This isn’t an edge case—we see this often in the last 3–7 years before retirement no matter the level of wealth.  Many are blinded by recent returns to look below the surface.

A smarter chase plan (no sixes required):

• Define your target run rate: how much after‑tax income you actually need, including Age Pension if it applies…
• Right‑size risk in super: adjust your asset mix so the portfolio can keep scoring singles and twos—even in choppy markets—without forced selling.
• Build a cash/short‑term bucket: 2–3 years of planned withdrawals in cash and high‑quality defensive assets so market dips don’t cost you wickets.
• Pre‑commit rules: automatic rebalancing, a withdrawal policy, and a “no new high‑risk positions in the final 36 months to retirement” rule.
• Scenario test: run your plan through “retire into a down year” vs “retire into an up year.” If it only works in the up‑year scenario, it’s not a plan—it’s hope.

The goal isn’t to avoid risk. It’s to avoid taking more risk than you need to reach your goals. On day five, chasing three an over, patience wins. Retirement is the same.

If you’re 55+ and within seven years of retirement with $750k+ across super and investments, book a 20‑minute Retirement Clarity Call.

On the call, we will:

• We start with you: What’s on your mind about retirement right now?
• We’ll surface roadblocks and blindspots: What’s unclear, what’s urgent, and what’s holding you back.

No pressure—if I can help, I’ll explain how; if not, I’ll point you in the right direction.

P.S. You don’t need to hit sixes to win retirement. You just need a plan that keeps the scoreboard moving, even when the bowling is tough.

Book your Retirement Clarity Call by clicking here and gain clarity on how you can achieve the retirement of your dreams before it’s too late to enjoy it.

Glenn Doherty – CFP – Financial Planner | Retirement Planning Specialist |Retirement Planning Made Simple for over 55’s within 7 years of retirement

We work with people in Adelaide and around Australia virtually via zoom!

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