When the Music Stops, Will You Retire on Your Terms?

Over the last few years, it’s felt like everyone’s a genius. Markets and Australian super balances — climbed and climbed. Portfolios swelled. Confidence rose.

Recently, the mood’s shifted. Volatility spiked. Prices wobbled. And that line from the movie “Margin Call” keeps ringing in my head: “When the music stops…”

No one knows exactly when that moment will come. After more than two decades working with pre-retirees, I’ve noticed complacency often peaks right before risk becomes real.

If you’re within 1–10 years of retirement, this is your runway. It’s not the time to get sloppy. It’s time to get precise.

Murphy’s Law for Retirees – I say this to clients all the time because it’s true:

• When you invest, markets will go down.
• When you retire, markets are likely to go down.
• Not because you’re unlucky—but because markets do what markets do. That’s Murphy’s law at work.

You don’t control the timing, but you can control your preparation. That includes how much risk you’re actually taking today, how that risk translates into real dollars, and how you’ll draw income when markets are down (not just when they’re up).

I’m seeing people approach retirement with higher levels of risk – often without realising it. Once they see the risk in dollar terms, they take action.

Retirement Risks Hiding Beneath the Surface

• Sequence-of-returns risk: The order of your returns matters far more in the years around retirement than most people realise. Two portfolios with the same average return can lead to very different outcomes if one suffers early losses during your drawdown years.
• Overexposure to growth assets: After a long bull run, many pre-retirees unknowingly carry far more risk than they need. That works—until it doesn’t.
• Proximity risk: The closer you are to retirement, the less time you have to recover from a large drawdown. Paper losses can turn into postponed retirements.
• Lifestyle timing risk: Your “go‑go years” won’t last forever. Delaying decisions can cost you the best, healthiest years of retirement.

We worked with a couple in their late 50s who had done a fantastic job saving: just over $2 million across super and non-super investments. Everything sat 100% in growth assets.

On paper, it worked. But when we translated portfolio risk into dollars, the picture changed:

• A 20% market fall would likely cut about $400,000 in a short period.
• They admitted they’d “panic” if they saw that happen—especially if they were already retired and drawing income.

The punchline? They didn’t need that level of risk to fund a comfortable retirement. We helped them re-aligned their portfolio to their goals and sleep-at-night threshold.

Result: they remain on track for their lifestyle, but without exposing themselves to a drawdown they knew they couldn’t stomach. That’s not being timid—that’s being intentional.

And they now sleep at night knowing a big market fall won’t force changes to their spending or plans.

A Wake-Up Call (Without the Alarmism)

• If you’re within 1–10 years of retirement and haven’t stress-tested your portfolio, you’re flying with uncalibrated instruments.
• If your retirement plan only works when markets are strong, it isn’t a retirement plan—it’s a bull-market plan..
• If you can’t clearly explain how you’ll withdraw income during a down market without selling assets at a loss, you’re exposed to sequence risk.

Important Questions to Ask Yourself Now

• If markets fell 20% in the next 12–24 months, could you still retire on schedule? Would you want to?
• How much of your current return is simply market beta—and how much risk are you taking to get it?
• Do you know your “sleep-at-night” number in dollars? For example, how would you feel if your portfolio fell $200,000? $400,000? Or more?
• What’s your plan for income if the first 2–3 years of retirement are negative? Where does cash flow come from so you’re not forced to sell growth assets at depressed prices?
• Have you optimised to enjoy your go‑go years (the early, healthy years) rather than pushing everything into the slow‑go and no‑go years?

Why Advice Isn’t a Cost

It’s insurance against avoidable mistakes. Good advice pays for itself the moment it prevents a big, permanent error—like panic selling after a 25% drop, retiring without an income buffer, carrying double the risk you need or paying more tax than you need too.

An objective eye helps you:

• Right-size risk to your actual goals, not just your account balance.
• Build an income strategy that anticipates down markets.
• Identify blind spots you can’t see from inside your own plan.
• Balance “enough growth” with “enough resilience” so you can retire with confidence, not hope.

A Simple Framework to Get Ready

Before the Music Stops…

Book your complimentary 20 min Retirement Clarity Call by clicking here where we’ll walk through a straightforward 3-step framework:

1. Diagnose: Where you are now – the biggest concerns navigating your retirement journey..
2. Design: A pragmatic blueprint for safely and confidently navigating your runway into retirement and beyond.
3. Deploy: Quick wins and next actions—actions steps to solve your retirement challenges with more clarity and confidence.

You don’t need a perfect market to retire well. You need a plan that works even when the music stops.

If you’re within 1–10 years of retirement, have $500k+ in super and other investments, and want a level-headed second opinion on your readiness, book a Retirement Clarity Call. We’ll pinpoint your biggest risks and show you how to move from “I hope it works out” to “I’m prepared either way.”

Imagine waking up with the freedom to pursue what matters—knowing your finances support it. That’s the power of a thoughtful plan. Schedule your call today.

Glenn Doherty – CFP – Financial Planner | Retirement Planning Specialist |Retirement Planning Made Simple for over 55’s within 7 years of retirement

We work with people in Adelaide and around Australia virtually via zoom!

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